As we start to stumble in a state of fatigue towards the end of 2009 I have started to think about what 2010 will bring – nothing like wishing your life away is there! Trying to predict events and challenges for the forthcoming 12 months is a bit like throwing chicken giblets at the wall and trying to interpret the patterns – you just cannot be sure which is going to stick and which will fall to the floor – but, hey, that’s the fun so here goes with my Top Ten Tech Predictions for 2010.
1: Google Wave will take over from Gmail and Google Chat. I haven’t been able to have a really good play with Wave but my initial feelings are that we will see a quantum leap in online collaboration functionality with Wave – think of MSN Messenger but a lot leaner, faster and with more bolt on goodies. There’s a lot of noise on the net about Chat and Gmail being given Wave features but I think it’s going to be a reverse takeover.
2: Facebook growth slows and becomes mainstream. I suspect the growth of Facebook will slow but that members will enjoy more games and other leisure based functionality. I expect it will also become more mainstream with your grandmother’s photographs of a senile delinquent’s night out on the sherry becoming commonplace!
3: Microsoft’s cloud applications will disappoint. This may be a bias going back to when Bill Gates said the Internet would never take off but I have always felt that Microsoft never took cloud based systems seriously and I feel the current online apps builds will fall by the wayside. This is not only because Google and Zoho have a generous head start but because MS seems to be aiming its product at existing PC based users and not embracing new adopters and it’s the latter that will make the market.
4: Twitter search will nibble at Google. Twitter will erode some of Google’s supremacy because searches are in real, Twitter time and not historic time. How many times have you searched for something on Google, it comes to somewhere near the top of page one and you find it is sometimes years out of date. Very relevant to the Google algorithm but totally useless for you.
5: Google’s Chrome Browser takes off. Well it will do once it makes it easy for plug-ins to be added for greater functionality. Let’s face it, Chrome is fast and the latest beta is stunningly quick but I rarely use it because I use Firefox’s easy plug in system. With Chrome it’s like having to sacrifice a goat and a few chickens to assorted heathen deities -it really is that primitive.
6: Social media will slowly enter mainstream marketing. It’s been slow, my god has it been slow but we will see more companies adopting social media as part of their marketing strategy. Sadly I think this will predominantly be led by the big boys as the chiefs in the medium sized companies are like rabbits in headlights (wake up and smell the coffee you useless blind bastards!!) Some of the smaller organisations will see their usage rise as they are leaner, hungrier and able to adapt more quickly.
7: SMEs will drive cloud computing adoption. Bit of a gamble this one but I think that the small to medium sized enterprises will drive the adoption of cloud computing. The reasons? First, like above they are leaner and can react quicker once they see the benefits. While the big boys are arguing about private cloud versus public cloud, security and scalability, the tiny players are thinking "Screw it, let’s take a punt, what have we got to lose?" Second, pricing for the SMEs make the cloud a very attractive proposition.
8: Smartphones will continue to surge. With Android devices challenging the supremacy of the iPhone the smartphone arena will get very interesting and very hot. There is also a chance Symbian will crash and burn because it promised so much and delivered so little that users will be tempted to look elsewhere.
9: iPhones are banned: iPhone users will find that high levels of radiation eats away at their genitalia, vast tufts of hair will spring from ears and noses and they will suffer terrible flatulence. Okay this is a no hoper but I just hate the smugness that surrounds the iPhone!
10: Windows 7 will take everyone by surprise and work! I’ll be honest I quite like XP. Having suffered the growth of Windows from 3.11 I thought XP worked well and I only suffered one or two crashes in all the years I ran it. However, after the appalling travesty that was Vista judging by friends’ feedback and trade reports it looks as thought Windows 7 might just cut the mustard.
So what are your predictions for 2010? Post them here.
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